Home > Uncategorized > Come Fourth Down, Atlanta Isn\’t Kicking – WSJ.com

Come Fourth Down, Atlanta Isn\’t Kicking – WSJ.com

All NFL coaches seek to win games in the trenches, but Atanta’s Mike Smith is showing you can win them on a spreadsheet, too.

Nearly a decade ago, California-Berkeley economist David Romer conducted the preeminent study on fourth down with his paper “It’s Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say?”…

The Falcons, who face the Packers in Saturday’s playoff, almost always reject convention on fourth and short in their opponents’ territory. Their “go for it” rate of 72% was tops…  The NFL average in these situations is a scant 38.8%…

In three games—including one vs. Green Bay—the points gained off extending the drive ultimately made the difference in a win

via Come Fourth Down, Atlanta Isn\’t Kicking – WSJ.com.

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