Home > Uncategorized > The Monkey Cage: Why Do Protests Bring Down Regimes? A Follow Up

The Monkey Cage: Why Do Protests Bring Down Regimes? A Follow Up

Why do protests bring down authoritarian regimes?…  The key to answer this question, I think, is to understand the basic nature of authoritarian rule. While the news media focus on “the dictator”, almost all authoritarian regimes are really coalitions involving a range of players…

Where do protests come in? The problem is that in authoritarian regimes there are few sources of reliable information that can help these pivotal elites decide whom to back. Restrictions on media freedom and civil and political rights limit the amount and quality of information that is available on both the incumbents and the opposition…

In this context, protests are excellent opportunities for communication…   protesters trying to convince other citizens that “people like them” hate the incumbents and are willing to act…  the other kind of message is the one that protests send to pivotal elites, who are weighing staying the course against the potential costs and benefits from switching sides…

When the “swing voters”, the semi-autonomous Intelligence Services (mukhabarat), moved behind the national capitalist faction, Mubarak was finished. Much of the action in the last days of January seems to have consisted of various high profile figures using the protest to signal their allegiance to or defection from Mubarak…

A coalitional model helps to explain why the apparently “strong” can fall so quickly to a bunch of kids and workers in the street. The strength of the incumbents is only as good as the alliances they have.

via The Monkey Cage: Why Do Protests Bring Down Regimes? A Follow Up.

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